MICRO LESSON 1
Random Experiment
Picture it:
Some activities have uncertain results.
Simple:
A random experiment has more than one possible outcome.
Example:
Tossing a coin.
Quick Check:
Is sunrise a random experiment?
MICRO LESSON 2
Outcome
Picture it:
An outcome is a possible result.
Simple:
Coin outcomes are head or tail.
Example:
Rolling a die gives 1 to 6.
Quick Check:
Name one die outcome.
MICRO LESSON 3
Event
Picture it:
An event is one or more outcomes of interest.
Simple:
Getting an even number on a die is {2,4,6}.
Example:
Events group outcomes.
Quick Check:
What is event of getting odd?
MICRO LESSON 4
Experimental Probability
Picture it:
Repeat an experiment and observe frequency.
Simple:
P(E)=number of times E occurs / total trials.
Example:
Head 52 times in 100 tosses gives 0.52.
Quick Check:
Why can it differ from 0.5?
MICRO LESSON 5
Probability Scale
Picture it:
Probability lies between 0 and 1.
Simple:
0 means impossible, 1 means certain.
Example:
Tomorrow being a weekday may depend on date.
Quick Check:
Can probability be 1.5?
MICRO LESSON 6
More Trials
Picture it:
More repetitions often give a more stable estimate.
Simple:
Experimental probability approaches expected behaviour.
Example:
1000 tosses usually more reliable than 10.
Quick Check:
Which is more reliable: 10 or 1000 tosses?
MICRO LESSON 7
Complementary Thinking
Picture it:
If an event does not happen, its complement happens.
Simple:
P(not E)=1-P(E) in standard probability.
Example:
Rain or no rain.
Quick Check:
If P(E)=0.3, P(not E)?